恐高的無縫鋼管市場何去何從?

　　2020年第47周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(2020.11.16-11.20)全國鋼材(cai)綜(zong)合價(jia)格(ge)(ge)指數(shu)達到(dao)157.5點(dian)，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)上(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)1.19%，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)去年同期上(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)5.40%。其中，LGMI長材(cai)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)指數(shu)為(wei)(wei)170.2點(dian)，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)上(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)1.15%，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)去年同期上(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)2.50%;LGMI型(xing)材(cai)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)指數(shu)為(wei)(wei)156.0點(dian)，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)上(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)0.73%，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)去年同期上(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)2.19%;LGMI板材(cai)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)指數(shu)為(wei)(wei)147.4點(dian)，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)上(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)1.40%，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)去年同期上(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)9.83%;LGMI管材(cai)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)指數(shu)為(wei)(wei)156.9點(dian)，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)上(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)0.58%，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)去年同期上(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)0.62%。

　　2020年(nian)第47周(zhou)國內部分地區鋼鐵(tie)原(yuan)燃(ran)料及鋼材(cai)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)計(ji)17類43個(ge)規(gui)格(品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong))的價(jia)(jia)格變化情況如下：主要(yao)鋼材(cai)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)市(shi)場價(jia)(jia)格快速拉漲(zhang)(zhang)，與上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)相比(bi)，上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)略有(you)增加，持(chi)(chi)平品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)明顯減少，下跌品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)略有(you)增加。其中(zhong)34個(ge)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)增加5種(zhong)(zhong);4種(zhong)(zhong)持(chi)(chi)平，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)減少7種(zhong)(zhong);5個(ge)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)下跌，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)增加2種(zhong)(zhong)。國內鋼鐵(tie)原(yuan)料市(shi)場震蕩(dang)盤整，鐵(tie)礦石(shi)價(jia)(jia)格上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)5-25元(yuan)，焦炭價(jia)(jia)格上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)50元(yuan)，廢鋼價(jia)(jia)格小幅波動，鋼坯價(jia)(jia)格上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)50元(yuan)。

　　當前我國經濟運行延續穩定恢復態勢，工業生產穩中有升，地產行業超預期，基建投資小幅回升，市場需求企穩回暖，整體市場預期向好。目前，雖然無縫鋼管市場處于傳統需求淡季，但卻呈現了明顯的淡季不淡的行情，在下游需求持續超預期釋放以及成本支撐再次增強的影響下，無縫鋼管市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)表現出(chu)了明(ming)(ming)顯的(de)抗跌性。但是北方地區已(yi)經受到了雨雪(xue)天氣的(de)影響，市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)成交開始(shi)放緩(huan)，而且現貨(huo)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)恐高氛(fen)圍已(yi)經較為濃郁，市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)交投(tou)的(de)節奏也(ye)在(zai)加(jia)(jia)快，高位加(jia)(jia)快出(chu)貨(huo)態勢明(ming)(ming)顯。綜(zong)合來看，下(xia)周(zhou)無(wu)縫鋼管市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)將呈現高位下(xia)滑的(de)局面。

　　據(ju)平(ping)臺周價格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)預(yu)(yu)(yu)測模型(xing)數(shu)據(ju)測算(suan)，下周(2020.11.23-11.27)國內鋼(gang)材(cai)(cai)市場(chang)價格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)將震(zhen)蕩下跌，長材(cai)(cai)市場(chang)價格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)將小(xiao)幅下跌，型(xing)材(cai)(cai)市場(chang)價格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)將穩(wen)中下滑，板材(cai)(cai)市場(chang)價格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)穩(wen)中下滑，無縫鋼(gang)管(guan)市場(chang)市場(chang)價格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)將震(zhen)蕩下滑。全國鋼(gang)材(cai)(cai)綜合價格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)預(yu)(yu)(yu)計在156.9點(dian)附近波(bo)(bo)動(dong)，鋼(gang)材(cai)(cai)均價在4310元左右，平(ping)均波(bo)(bo)動(dong)10-50元左右;其中，長材(cai)(cai)價格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)預(yu)(yu)(yu)計在169.2點(dian)附近波(bo)(bo)動(dong)，下跌1.0點(dian);型(xing)材(cai)(cai)價格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)預(yu)(yu)(yu)計在155.7點(dian)附近波(bo)(bo)動(dong)，下滑0.3點(dian);板材(cai)(cai)價格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)預(yu)(yu)(yu)計在147.1點(dian)附近波(bo)(bo)動(dong)，下滑0.3點(dian);管(guan)材(cai)(cai)價格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)預(yu)(yu)(yu)計在156.6點(dian)附近波(bo)(bo)動(dong)，下滑0.3點(dian)。